The 19% Drop: Why Fort Worth Buyers Hit Pause

Hello Fort Worth Insiders!

Tuesday means one story, deep dived. 19%. That's how many fewer North Texas buyers signed a contract in September than a year ago. Today we unpack why, and what it means for your home.

Kirstine

Buyers hit pause.

THE SHORT VERSION

Mortgage rates climbed nine weeks in a row and topped out at 7.40%. That's the highest since November 2023. Across North Texas, pending sales, which are homes that went under contract, fell 19% in September from a year ago. But here's the twist: prices in our part of the metro did not fall. The typical home in the Fort Worth area sold for $353,495, flat on last year. So buyers are waiting, sellers are holding, and the deal is now in the details.

Here's the part most headlines skip. The Federal Reserve does not set your mortgage rate.

The Fed sets a short-term rate that banks charge each other overnight. Your 30-year mortgage follows something else: the 10-year Treasury yield. That's the interest the US government pays when it borrows money for ten years. When investors want more interest to lend to the government, mortgage rates rise too.

This autumn, bond investors started to expect that rates will stay high for longer. Reports point to worries about inflation and world events. Bond prices fell, yields rose, and mortgage rates went with them. Freddie Mac itself says its survey alone can't pin the move on one single cause.

That's why a Fed meeting can come and go and your quote barely moves. Or it can move the other way. Watch the 10-year, not just the Fed.

23 October 2025 – The 30-year rate sits at 6.19% (Freddie Mac).

10 September 2026 – The rate is 6.76% and climbing.

24 September 2026 – It crosses 7%, at 7.03%.

1 October 2026 – 7.28%. Highest since November 2023.

8 October 2026 – 7.40%. Seventh rise in a row.

14 October 2026 – Fannie Mae raises its forecast to 7.4% for the rest of 2026 and 7.5% for 2027. A month earlier it expected under 7%.

16 October 2026 – September NTREIS figures land. Pending sales down 19%.

22 October 2026 – The rate eases to 7.32%. First drop in nine weeks.

If buyers are pulling back, why aren't prices falling? Three reasons.

One: sellers aren't flooding in. New listings across the metro fell 5% in September. Active listings fell 2%. Many owners have a low rate they don't want to give up. So supply stays tight, and tight supply holds prices up.

Two: the pain shows up in deals, not prices. A seller may keep the price at $350,000 but pay $10,000 towards the buyer's costs. On paper, the price held. In real life, the seller took less. That's why the 94.7% matters more than the median right now.

Three: our corner is tighter than the rest. The Fort Worth area has less supply than Dallas or Denton. But it's not the same everywhere. Parker County has 5.1 months of supply, and its median fell 4% to $461,390. Hood County has 5.9 months, with a median down 5%. Johnson County held close to flat at $319,900. The further west and south-west you go, the more room buyers have.

Here's one way to feel the squeeze. To keep the same monthly payment a buyer had a year ago at 6.19%, the median home would need to cost about $314,800 today. That's roughly $38,700 less than it sells for. Prices haven't moved that far. That gap is why so many buyers are sitting still. (My maths.)

If you're buying

This is the quietest market we've seen in a while, and quiet is good for you. Fewer people are writing offers. Homes are sitting almost two months. That gives you time to inspect, compare and push back.

Ask for help with the rate, not just the price. A 2-1 buydown is where the seller pays to lower your rate for two years. On a $318,000 loan at 7.32%, it drops your payment by about $415 a month in year one and $212 in year two. It costs roughly $7,500 up front. That's less than a 3% seller credit on the median home, which is about $10,600. (My maths.)

New builds are where the deals are deepest. Builders have their own lenders and often pay for buydowns. Walsh, Morningstar, the Burleson and Crowley corridors and the I-35W north side all have active builders. Ask every one for their incentive sheet in writing.

If you need under $330,000, look south into Johnson County and south Fort Worth. If you want more room to negotiate, look west into Parker and Hood, where supply is deepest.

If you're selling

Price it right on day one. Buyers today are doing the payment maths before they ever see your home. If you're priced high, they won't come to look.

Plan for a credit. Most buyers will ask for help with closing costs or a buydown. Build that into your number now, so it doesn't feel like a loss later. A buydown often costs you less than a big price cut and helps the buyer more.

If you're in Parker or Hood County, expect more competition, from both resales and builders. Your edge is what new builds don't have: a finished street, grown trees, a bigger lot, or no MUD tax. Say so plainly in your listing.

If you're staying put

Your home value is holding. The median in our area is flat, not falling. If you have a rate under 5%, that rate is now worth real money every month. Guard it.

If you bought in the past two years at a rate near 7%, keep an eye on rates. You don't need a huge drop to save. A full point lower on a $300,000 loan saves roughly $200 a month. Ask your lender to tell you when the maths works.

And this is a good winter to do the jobs that lift value. Roofs, HVAC and fresh paint pay off when it's time to sell.

The case that this is fine is strong. The Greater Fort Worth Association of Realtors called the market balanced this year. Its president, Shawn Buck, said "sellers can ask a fair price, and buyers can take more time to find a home that fits their needs." Our supply of 3.8 months is still low. Prices are flat, not falling. And forecasts can swing fast. Fannie Mae moved its 2027 rate call from 6.7% to 7.5% in one month. It could move back just as fast.

The case for worry is also real. Builder confidence fell to 29 in October, its lowest since 2012. NAHB's chairman said buyer traffic is at its lowest since April 2012, not counting the pandemic shock. A 19% drop in contracts means fewer closings in November and December. Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association both see rates above 7% into 2027. If that holds, sellers who need to move may have to cut deeper.

Where I land: this is a buyer's window, not a crash. Prices are steady because owners aren't selling, not because buyers are rushing in. If rates stay above 7%, expect bigger seller credits, not big price drops. We'll know more by mid-November.

Get two rate quotes on the same day: one at today's rate, and one with a seller-paid 2-1 buydown. Buyers, take both to every showing so you know what to ask for. Sellers, know the cost so you can offer it before a buyer asks.

Mortgage rates: Freddie Mac, 22 Oct
Rate timeline: WRE News and Trading Economics
September NTREIS figures: NTREIS monthly report and MetroTex, 16 Oct
Builder confidence and price cuts: Mortgage News Daily (NAHB)
Fannie Mae forecast: Quartz
MBA forecast: Raise the Bar DMV
Shawn Buck quote: Weatherford Democrat (GFWAR)
Fed meeting date: FOMC schedule
D.R. Horton results date: D.R. Horton release
Payment, buydown and price maths: my own estimates.

Wondering what today's rates mean for your price or your payment? Reply to this email – I read every one.

Or book a 15-minute call with Clive and me.

- Kirstine

Fort Worth has the heart. We track the pulse. So you never miss a beat.

I'm Kirstine Openshaw, Top 250 Fort Worth Texas Realtor. Clive and I own the Fort Worth Pulse Realty Group. I get you the home. Clive gets you the loan. NMLS #2639452

682-442-3441 · [email protected]