Author
Kirstine Openshaw

Hey, it's Kirstine - breaking down how Fort Worth's infrastructure investments and Denton's historic ranch transformation are creating the next decade of regional opportunities.

In today's newsletter:

Panther Island $1.16B Funding: Riverwalk district, thousands of homes, downtown-Northside-Stockyards property value impact

Lockheed $3.6B F-35 Contract: Fort Worth plant maintenance work through 2026, aerospace economic foundation

Market Snapshot: This week's sales data + what it means for buyers and sellers

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Trinity River Vision Authority receives $1.16 billion federal approval from U.S. Army Corps of Engineers clearing decades-long funding obstacles for Panther Island bypass channel creating new riverwalk district north of downtown Fort Worth featuring planned residential development (thousands of units), retail-dining-entertainment mixed-use, and infrastructure acceleration positioning downtown-Northside-Stockyards corridor for property value appreciation as major developers circle project and construction timelines advance creating one of Texas's most valuable urban districts at completion. [TRVA, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers]

Project Funding:

Development Components:

Geographic Impact:

Infrastructure Status:

Property Value Implications:

Downtown, Northside, and Stockyards neighborhoods likely experiencing property value increases as Panther Island funding certainty removes development risk premium, while riverwalk amenity positioning creates waterfront lifestyle appeal similar to San Antonio's River Walk economic impact patterns demonstrating mixed-use districts driving sustained appreciation.

Developer Interest:

"Major developers are circling Panther Island right now" per announcement, suggesting institutional capital recognizing early positioning opportunities before residential phases launch and retail-entertainment anchors pre-lease validating absorption assumptions, while infrastructure acceleration creates construction timeline certainty contrasting decades of speculative delays.

Community Concerns (From Reader Comments):

Traffic Impact:
Thousands of new homes plus retail-entertainment creating vehicle trips converging on downtown-Northside corridors already experiencing congestion, while infrastructure investments focus on flood control and bypass channel rather than comprehensive transportation capacity expansion raising questions about roadway improvements timing relative to residential occupancy.

Property Tax Implications:
$1.16B federal investment plus private development creating property tax base expansion potentially offsetting individual homeowner burden, but TIF district structures (if implemented) could redirect increment to debt service rather than general revenue creating municipal budget pressures potentially triggering rate increases on existing residents funding services for new population.

Completion Timeline Skepticism:
Decades of delays before federal funding approval creating community doubt about actual delivery timeline and scope changes during construction, while multi-year phasing creates uncertainty about which components complete first (infrastructure vs. residential vs. retail) affecting adjacent property values differently based on sequence.

Why It's Strategic: Panther Island's $1.16B federal funding - after decades of delays - transforms speculative riverfront concept into funded infrastructure project with construction underway, removing primary development risk and triggering major developer interest in thousands of planned homes plus retail-dining-entertainment creating San Antonio River Walk-style urban district positioning Fort Worth's downtown-Northside-Stockyards corridor for sustained property value appreciation. The federal funding certainty (versus local/state sources) provides completion confidence despite community timeline skepticism from historical delays, while bypass channel flood control infrastructure enables development on previously flood-prone land creating new urban acreage unavailable in established downtown. However, community traffic concerns reflect legitimate infrastructure capacity questions where thousands of new homes and entertainment venues create vehicle trips on corridors (I-35W, North Main Street) already congested, while property tax uncertainty around TIF districts and service demands from new population create legitimate fiscal concerns requiring municipal transparency about financing structures and rate impacts on existing residents.

What does this growth mean for our communities & the Real Estate Markets?

In an effort to keep it brief & not swamp you with the data, here’s the lowdown for the last 7 days & our professional interpretation of what it translates to:

Tarrant County:

The Big Picture:
Tarrant County just experienced a significant market slowdown. Closed sales down 10.3%, new listings down 7.9%, and under contract down 15% in one week. This isn't a balanced market anymore - this is a cooling pattern.

The Sale-to-List Ratio Dropped:
Homes are now selling at 94.2% of asking price (down from our previous 97.6%). That 3.4% difference means on a $440K home, sellers are leaving about $15,000 on the table compared to a few weeks ago. Buyer negotiating power is increasing.

1,506 Homes Failed to Sell:
Nearly as many homes went off-market WITHOUT selling (1,506) as new listings came on (1,486). That's a 1:1 ratio of new hope versus dashed expectations. Let's break down why:

Cancelled Listings (691 homes - 46% of failures):

Expired Listings (645 homes - 43% of failures):

The Overpricing Crisis:
The average off-market home was listed at $629,695 - that's 42% higher than what's actually closing ($444,150). Sellers are still anchored to 2021-2022 peak pricing while buyers are living in 2026 reality.

Price Per Square Foot Reality Check:

The Age Factor:
Failed listings average 1991-2000 builds (25-35 years old). Buyers want newer homes or deep discounts on older inventory. Sellers of older homes refusing to price competitively are getting punished.

What Panther Island and Lockheed Mean for This Data:
While $1.16B Panther Island funding and $3.6B Lockheed contract create long-term appreciation thesis for downtown-Northside-Stockyards and aerospace corridors, the overall Tarrant County market is cooling RIGHT NOW.

Translation: Great fundamentals (federal investment, job security) don't override immediate market dynamics (15% fewer contracts, seller overpricing, buyer caution).

Bottom Line:
If you're selling in Tarrant County right now:

If you're buying:

The Panther Island/Lockheed Exception:
If you're buying/selling within 3 miles of Panther Island's future riverwalk or near Lockheed's Fort Worth plant, you're playing a different game. Federal investment creates micro-market strength even as broader Tarrant County cools. Price accordingly.Novembers Days on Market

Tarrant County 57 | No Change YoY

Dallas County 61 | 13%

Parker County 96 | UP 21.5%

Denton County 72 | UP 22%

What This Means:
Tarrant is holding steady at 57 days because of infrastructure investments (Panther Island, Lockheed, Walsh Ranch), but surrounding counties are slowing dramatically. Buyers want deals before committing to areas where water and traffic questions remain unanswered.

Parker's 96 days (up 21.5%) shows the outer-county slowdown where lower prices don't offset longer waits anymore. Dallas's 61 days (up 13%) demonstrates even urban core markets are cooling as buyers gain negotiating power.

Translation: If you're selling in Tarrant, you have a 57-day window (about 8 weeks) when priced correctly. Denton? You're waiting 72 days (10+ weeks). Parker? 96 days means you're looking at 13-14 weeks from listing to closing. The premium for speed is now location + realistic pricing.

Watch this space to see what Q1 2026 unveils.

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U.S. Department of Defense grants Lockheed Martin $3.6 billion contract through 2026 for F-35 jet maintenance, repairs, training, parts supporting 1,200+ existing aircraft with Fort Worth plant receiving primary allocation alongside Orlando-Marietta-Greenville-Palmdale facilities, reinforcing Fort Worth as Texas aerospace-defense capital through steady work for local suppliers and thousands of regional jobs as Pentagon addresses 50% flight-readiness rate (below mission goals) through sustained parts-repair investment demonstrating Fort Worth's aviation sector economic foundation weathering recessions. [U.S. Department of Defense]

Contract Specifications:

Fort Worth Plant Role:

Additional Facilities:

Pentagon Readiness Challenge:

Recent Department of Defense report showing F-35 fleet only 50% flight-ready (significantly below operational targets) due to parts shortages and repair backlogs, creating urgency for $3.6B maintenance investment addressing grounded aircraft awaiting fixes rather than new production emphasis.

Fort Worth Economic Impact:

Regional Positioning:

Fort Worth's aviation footprint contrasts other cities pursuing AI data centers or tech sector concentration, while locked-in federal defense contracts provide economic foundation with multi-year visibility and budget predictability, demonstrating diversified industry base supporting home values, business expansion, long-term stability during economic downturns.

Community Questions (From Reader Comments):

Job Creation Specifics:
Contract announcement lacking precise Fort Worth employment numbers (direct hires vs. supplier jobs vs. retained positions), creating uncertainty about actual job market impact versus existing workforce continuation, while "thousands of jobs" language suggests magnitude without enabling individual career planning or workforce development program sizing.

Budget Execution Concerns:
Pentagon spending $3.6B addressing 50% readiness rate raises questions about previous maintenance budget allocation efficiency and whether additional spending solves underlying parts supply chain or repair process issues versus simply increasing costs without proportional readiness improvement, affecting taxpayer value and long-term contract sustainability.

Why It's Critical: Lockheed Martin's $3.6B F-35 maintenance contract through 2026 with Fort Worth plant receiving primary allocation demonstrates Pentagon recognition that Fort Worth's aerospace infrastructure, skilled workforce, and supplier ecosystem provide mission-critical capacity addressing 50% flight-readiness crisis where 1,200+ existing jets require sustained maintenance-repair-parts investment contrasting new production emphasis. The through-2026 timeline creates economic certainty for local suppliers and workforce planning, while federal defense budget insulation from recession cycles provides Fort Worth employment stability contrasting tech sector volatility (layoffs, funding freezes) in cities concentrating on AI-data centers without diversified industry base. However, community job creation questions reflect legitimate information gap where "thousands of jobs" lacks specificity about new hires versus existing workforce retention or supplier indirect employment, while Pentagon budget execution concerns about spending $3.6B to address readiness problems potentially stemming from previous underinvestment raise taxpayer value questions about contract efficiency and long-term sustainability if underlying supply chain or process issues remain unaddressed.

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Project Scale:

Historical Context:

MT Cole family ownership since 1930s supporting crops, cattle, buffalo operations, while developers emphasizing "honoring ranch's legacy" through preservation and naming creating heritage marketing narrative contrasting typical suburban commodity development.

Nearby Landmark Project (Hillwood):

Homebuyers: Panther Island's $1.16B funding proves downtown Fort Worth is getting serious investment after decades of waiting, while Lockheed's $3.6B contract keeps aerospace jobs stable through 2026. But here's the reality: Tarrant County just saw closed sales drop 10.3% and homes now sell at 94.2% of asking (down from 97.6%). If you're buying near Panther Island or Lockheed corridors, you're positioned for long-term appreciation - but don't overpay. Use this cooling market to negotiate.

Real Estate Investors: Panther Island removes decades of development risk - major developers are circling now before thousands of residential units launch. But watch the data: 1,506 Tarrant homes just failed to sell, with cancelled and expired listings averaging $629K (42% above what actually closed at $444K). That's your opportunity - find the desperate sellers who've been sitting 102-128 days and negotiate hard. Fort Worth's $3.6B Lockheed contract proves recession-resistant federal money, while Denton's 10,365-home pipeline (Cole Ranch + Landmark) creates land speculation opportunities - though water capacity and traffic infrastructure concerns are real and require serious due diligence.

Sellers (Pay Attention): The market just shifted under your feet. With 1,622 closings down 10.3%, new listings down 7.9%, and contracts down 15%, you can't price like it's 2022 anymore. Nearly 1,500 homes went off-market without selling last week - 691 cancelled, 645 expired. They sat 102-128 days with zero offers because they were priced 28-59% too high. You're now selling at 94.2% of asking, not 97%+. Price aggressively from day one or join the 1,506 failures. Panther Island and Lockheed create long-term value, but they don't override immediate market cooling.

Bottom line: Fort Worth secured $4.76B in federal investment (Panther Island + Lockheed) creating genuine long-term appreciation drivers. TODAY's market shows cooling: sales down 10.3%, contracts down 15%, 1,506 homes failing to sell at an average $629K when actual closings are $444K. The gap between seller expectations and buyer reality is 42% - and that's creating opportunities for smart buyers and pain for stubborn sellers.

[Schedule a call] with Kirstine Openshaw | Openshaw Realty Group

What's Happening This Week:

Big news heading into the new year - mortgage rates continue their downward trend as the Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts start flowing through the system. We're seeing the lowest rates in over a year, creating real opportunities for buyers who've been waiting.

Translation: The waiting game is paying off. Rates dropped, and timing matters now more than ever.

Current Rates (National Average):

What You Should Know:

We can close loans in two weeks or less (on qualifying programs), experts with DSCR loans (Debt Service Coverage Ratio Loans for Investment Properties), offer reverse mortgages for both purchases and cash-out refinances, and have access to creative solutions including broker loans for buyers who might not qualify through traditional routes. Even working this weekend to help get deals done before year-end. Schedule a call now to talk with Clive Openshaw [Close with Clive - Schedule a Call]

Why These Lower Rates Matter:

With Panther Island's $1.16B funding approved and Lockheed's $3.6B contract securing Fort Worth aerospace jobs through 2026, we're seeing buyer confidence return. Lower rates + employment stability + major infrastructure investments = perfect timing for strategic purchases.

A 6.15% rate on a $400K home saves you about $140/month compared to last year's 7% rates. That's $1,680 annually - real money that affects buying power.

New Year Opportunity:

Rates are down, Panther Island is funded, Lockheed's bringing billions to Fort Worth, and Denton's launching a $5B community (we’ll discuss in next week’s episode or you can watch here now). This combination creates strategic positioning opportunities before infrastructure projects drive appreciation.

Plus, with Tarrant County homes selling in 56 days at 97.6% of asking when priced right, you're looking at a fast close if you act now while inventory is still available.

Schedule a call now to talk with Clive Openshaw [Close with Clive - Schedule a Call]

Bottom Line: We're starting 2026 with the lowest rates in over a year, federal billions flowing into Fort Worth (Panther Island $1.16B, Lockheed $3.6B), and major master-planned communities launching (Cole Ranch $5B). Whether you're buying near the future riverwalk, in aerospace employment corridors, or in Denton's new developments - now is the time to lock in rates before spring competition arrives.

Want to discuss your specific situation? Reply back "CLOSE" to schedule a call with Clive, or let's explore what programs might work for your timeline and goals before rates shift again. (NMLS #2639452)

See you next week,
Kirstine & Clive Openshaw