Author
Kirstine Openshaw

Hey, it's Kirstine - breaking down this week's biggest DFW developments and what the November numbers actually mean for our communities & Real Estate Markets.

In today's newsletter:

Walsh Ranch $14.3B TIF: 7,191 acres, 15,400 homes, UTA West Campus, H-E-B anchor, 50-60 year infrastructure plan [Watch Now]

Shelton Ranch 858 Acres: 2,600 homes, $350K-$500K range, Trophy Signature Homes, North Fort Worth ETJ [Watch Now]

Market Snapshot: This week's sales data + what it means for buyers and seller

Join us on our next Webinar “Top 5 Mistakes Homebuyers Make - & how you avoid them” so you can start planning your next smart investment - [Click Here]

City Council advances Tax Increment Financing District 18 for 7,191-acre Walsh Ranch development spanning Tarrant-Parker Counties with $890M infrastructure investment over 50-60 years accelerating regional roads, water, sewer, drainage projects enabling 5,400 single-family homes, 10,000 multifamily units, 8.7M SF office, 15M SF industrial, 3.9M SF retail, 700-room hotel with University of Texas Arlington West Campus, H-E-B grocery anchor, luxury apartment complex already approved creating $14.3B total public-private buildout value positioning West Fort Worth as city's next economic corridor following AllianceTexas and Veale Ranch TIF-driven transformation patterns demonstrating infrastructure financing unlocking decades of growth. [Fort Worth Business Press, City of Fort Worth]

TIF District Scale:

Residential Program:

Commercial Components:

Anchor Tenants:

Total Investment:

Infrastructure Financing Mechanics:

TIF District 18 captures property tax increment growth (difference between current baseline and future assessed values) within defined boundaries, dedicating increment to debt service on $890M infrastructure bonds rather than general revenue, enabling roads-water-sewer-drainage construction preceding residential-commercial development instead of requiring developer upfront capital, similar to AllianceTexas and Veale Ranch TIF strategies that unlocked Fort Worth's northern corridor growth.

Historical Precedent:

Economic Corridor Positioning:

Fort Worth Business Press characterizing Walsh Ranch as "city's next economic corridor" while West Fort Worth location near I-20 creates Dallas-Fort Worth connectivity similar to AllianceTexas positioning near I-35W, while UTA West Campus educational anchor mirrors major university presence driving residential demand and commercial tenant attraction in established growth corridors.

Why It's Strategic: Walsh Ranch's $14.3B buildout with $890M TIF infrastructure financing - spanning 7,191 acres across Tarrant-Parker Counties - demonstrates Fort Worth replicating AllianceTexas transformation strategy where public infrastructure investment (roads, water, sewer) unlocks private development capital at 15:1 ratio ($14.3B private vs. $890M public), while 50-60 year financing timeline creates generational growth corridor rather than speculative short-term play. The UTA West Campus anchor provides educational employment similar to how major universities drive surrounding residential demand, while H-E-B grocery positioning validates retail viability and luxury apartment approval signals developer confidence in near-term absorption despite multi-decade total buildout horizon. TIF District 18 property tax increment capture mechanism shifts infrastructure costs to future value creation rather than current taxpayer burden, while 15,400 total residential units (5,400 single-family + 10,000 multifamily) and 27.6M SF commercial create live-work-shop environment reducing commute dependency and supporting sustained absorption as West Fort Worth emerges as Dallas alternative for companies seeking lower costs and land availability.

What does this growth mean for our communities & the Real Estate Markets?

In an effort to keep it brief & not swamp you with the data, here’s the lowdown for the last 7 days & our professional interpretation of what it translates to:

Tarrant County:

Dallas County:

Parker County:

Hood County:

The Big Picture:
Homes are selling at 96-97.5% of asking price across all four counties, meaning pricing is realistic and buyers aren't lowballing. That's a healthy, balanced market where neither buyers nor sellers have extreme leverage.

Tarrant County Reality:
With 347 homes closing at an average $439K and 300 new listings averaging $411K, inventory is moving steadily. But notice the 303 homes that went off-market without selling at an average of $615K: that's 40% higher than what's actually closing. Translation: Overpriced homes are sitting, then being withdrawn. Sellers who price right are winning; those who don't are wasting time.

The Southlake Distortion:
Southlake's 4 "Coming Soon" homes average $3.3M, which skews Tarrant County's luxury data. Remove Southlake, and the "Coming Soon" average drops to $517K - much closer to what's actually selling. This tells you luxury inventory is still struggling while affordable-to-mid-range homes ($400K-$600K) continue moving.

Dallas County's Struggle:
Dallas has the highest "Off Market NOT Sold" average at $1,014,684; meaning luxury sellers are listing high, getting no bites, and pulling listings. Meanwhile, homes actually closing average $585K, and new listings average $472K. The gap between hope and reality is widest in Dallas County.

Parker & Hood Counties (The Outliers):
Parker County closed 67 homes at $517K with a 97.5% sale-to-list ratio; strong performance for a smaller market. Hood County's 28 closings at $562K show similar health. These outer counties are attracting buyers priced out of Tarrant/Dallas but still wanting North Texas access, especially with Walsh Ranch, Bonds Ranch, and northwest Fort Worth development pushing the growth frontier west and north.

Bottom Line:
If you're selling under $600K in Tarrant or Parker, price it right and it moves fast at 97%+ of asking. If you're selling above $600K (especially Dallas luxury), expect longer days on market and possible price reductions. The 300+ overpriced Tarrant homes withdrawn without selling prove the market punishes unrealistic expectations. Buyers have options - sellers who recognize that win.

Tarrant County: 56 days
Dallas County: 57 days
Parker County: 103 days
Hood County: 83 days

What This Speed Difference Tells Us:
Tarrant and Dallas homes sell almost twice as fast as Parker and Hood. Why? Jobs, infrastructure, and development momentum. Tarrant County benefits from AllianceTexas, Walsh Ranch, Bonds Ranch expansion. Dallas has corporate headquarters and urban amenities. Parker and Hood offer lower prices but longer waits; buyers there want deals, not speed.

The 56-57 day average in Tarrant/Dallas means realistic sellers close in about 2 months. The 83-103 day wait in Parker/Hood means sellers need patience or price cuts to compete.

Watch this space to see what December's numbers reveal.

#3 DFW homebuilder Green Brick Partners (2,899 2024 closings) receives Fort Worth City Council water-sewer service approval for 858-acre Shelton Ranch development north of Peden Road near Bonds Ranch featuring 2,600+ Trophy Signature Homes targeting $350K-$500K price range matching nearby Madero-Ventana communities, plus multifamily units, retail, school sites, open space creating North Fort Worth ETJ's largest approved master-planned tract as phased infrastructure approvals signal next major corridor following Walsh Ranch westward expansion pattern demonstrating institutional builder absorption confidence in northern growth trajectory. [Fort Worth Star-Telegram, City of Fort Worth]

Project Specifications:

Residential Program:

Additional Components:

Developer Profile:

North Corridor Context:

North Fort Worth ETJ emerging as next major master-planned corridor following:

Competitive Positioning:

$350K-$500K price range positioning Shelton Ranch between entry-level and move-up segments, matching nearby Madero-Ventana success demonstrating validated absorption at price point, while Trophy Signature Homes brand within Green Brick Partners creates product differentiation versus commodity builders and institutional capital backing enables patient phased delivery contrasting financially-constrained regional builders requiring faster lot turnover and external financing.

Why It's Critical: Green Brick Partners' 858-acre Shelton Ranch approval - representing North Fort Worth ETJ's largest master-planned tract - demonstrates #3 DFW builder with 2,899 annual closings committing institutional capital to northern corridor growth thesis requiring decade-scale absorption confidence, while water-sewer infrastructure approval eliminates primary development risk enabling construction timeline certainty versus speculative land holdings awaiting municipal service extensions. The $350K-$500K Trophy Signature Homes positioning matches nearby Madero-Ventana communities creating price point validation rather than untested market assumption, while 2,600+ home scale with multifamily-retail-school integration creates self-contained community economics supporting sustained absorption beyond pure residential speculation. Shelton Ranch's northern location complements Walsh Ranch's western expansion revealing Fort Worth's dual-corridor growth strategy where institutional builders and developers (Green Brick, Hines) capture large-scale master-planned opportunities while regional builders face consolidation pressure, demonstrating market bifurcation favoring well-capitalized entities capable of patient infrastructure investment and phased delivery timelines.

Homebuyers: Walsh Ranch $14.3B TIF approval and Shelton Ranch 2,600-home infrastructure clearance create early positioning windows in Fort Worth's western and northern corridors before Phase 1 releases, UTA West Campus-H-E-B announcements, and retail-office pre-leasing drive competition, while $350K-$500K Trophy Signature Homes price range and 5,400 single-family Walsh homes offer entry-level to move-up options as market data shows homes selling in 56 days at 97.6% of asking when priced correctly.

Real Estate Investors: TIF District 18's $890M infrastructure funding over 50-60 years creates patient capital opportunity where AllianceTexas-Veale Ranch precedents demonstrate decades-long appreciation following public infrastructure investment unlocking private development, while Green Brick's 858-acre institutional acquisition and Walsh's 15,400 total residential units validate absorption confidence supporting land banking strategies in adjacent corridors before retail-office anchors (H-E-B, UTA West Campus) trigger market recognition and price adjustments.

Municipal Leaders and Developers: Fort Worth's dual-corridor strategy - Walsh Ranch westward ($14.3B) and Shelton Ranch northern (2,600 homes) - demonstrates infrastructure-first development sequencing where TIF financing shifts costs to future tax increments rather than current budgets, while institutional capital (Green Brick #3 DFW builder) capturing large-scale opportunities contrasts regional builder consolidation pressure revealing market bifurcation favoring well-capitalized entities with patient absorption timelines and this week's data showing 303 Tarrant homes withdrawn at $615K average while correctly-priced inventory sells in 56 days at 97.6% of asking.

Bottom line: This week demonstrates Fort Worth locking in generational growth through $14.3B Walsh Ranch TIF approval and 858-acre Shelton Ranch infrastructure clearance creating western and northern expansion corridors with combined 18,000 homes, while market data reveals homes selling at 97%+ of asking in 56 days (Tarrant) when priced correctly but 303 overpriced withdrawals averaging $615K demonstrate consequences of unrealistic expectations, as Walsh's UTA West Campus-H-E-B anchors and Shelton's $350K-$500K Trophy Signature positioning create early positioning windows before Phase 1 releases and anchor tenant announcements validate employment-residential demand triggering price adjustments reflecting decades-long appreciation potential following AllianceTexas-Veale Ranch TIF-driven transformation precedents.

Ready to position land holdings in Walsh Ranch's $14.3B western corridor or identify pre-construction opportunities in Shelton Ranch before Trophy Signature Homes releases drive competition? Let's connect you with our partners who understand TIF district timing cycles and institutional builder phasing strategies supporting strategic entry before infrastructure completion triggers appreciation.

[Schedule a call]

What's Happening This Week:

Big news heading into next week - there's a 90% chance the Federal Reserve cuts their Fed Funds Rate. Core inflation has held steady at 2.4% year-over-year for the past seven months, putting us close to the Fed's 2% target and setting the stage for a potential series of rate cuts as we enter the new year.

Translation: Lower rates could be coming. If you've been waiting for the right moment, this could be it.

Current Rates (National Average):

Why This Fed Cut Matters:

When the Fed cuts rates, mortgage rates usually follow within weeks. With inflation staying near their 2% target for seven straight months, we're likely looking at multiple cuts - not just one. That means buyers who lock rates now could benefit, and those waiting might see even better opportunities in early 2026.

Year-End Opportunity:

Rates are down, the Fed is signaling cuts, and motivated sellers are still in the market before the holidays. This combination doesn't happen often, lower rates, less competition, and sellers eager to close before year-end. Plus, with Walsh Ranch's $14.3B approval and Shelton Ranch's 2,600 homes creating early positioning opportunities, locking rates now means getting ahead of development-driven appreciation.

What You Should Know:

We can close loans in two weeks or less (on qualifying programs), experts with DSCR loans (Debt Service Coverage Ratio Loans for Investment Properties), offer reverse mortgages for both purchases and cash-out refinances, and have access to creative solutions including broker loans for buyers who might not qualify through traditional routes. Even working this weekend to help get deals done before year-end. Schedule a call now to talk with Clive Openshaw [Close with Clive - Schedule a Call]

Bottom Line: We're at a turning point. After months of high rates, the Fed is ready to cut, inflation is cooperating, and mortgage rates dropped again this week. Whether you're buying in Walsh Ranch's western corridor, Shelton Ranch's northern expansion, or anywhere in Fort Worth's growth zones, now is the time to explore your options.

Schedule a call now to talk with Clive Openshaw [Close with Clive - Schedule a Call]

Want to discuss your specific situation? Reply back "CLOSE" to schedule a call with Clive, or let's explore what programs might work for your timeline and goals before rates shift again. (NMLS #2639452)

See you next week,
Kirstine & Clive Openshaw